If you buy stainless steel pipe from China, you know prices have been low all 2025. December 12, 2025 numbers show 304 seamless at about 19,200 RMB per ton and 316L at 24,900 RMB per ton. Mills are cutting output and demand is slowly coming back, so most analysts expect a steady rise in 2026 and 2027. Here is the simple, real forecast.
Current Prices – December 2025
304 seamless 6-inch pipe: 18,800–19,800 RMB/ton 316L seamless 4-inch pipe 24,200–25,600 RMB/ton 304 welded tube 16,800–18,000 RMB/ton Export volume is still strong at 1.2 million tons in November, but tariffs keep prices low for now.
What Will Push Prices Up in 2026–2027
- Production cuts – another 20 million tons less stainless crude steel in 2026
- Nickel price slowly climbing to $17,000–$18,000 per ton
- Food, pharma and energy projects need more 316L pipes
- EU carbon tax (CBAM) makes export pipes 4–8 % more expensive
- Domestic construction and green projects start again in late 2026
2026 Price Forecast (RMB per ton, average)
| Grade | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Full year change |
| 304 seamless | 19,300 | 19,600 | 19,900 | 20,200 | +5–7 % |
| 316L seamless | 25,300 | 25,800 | 26,300 | 26,700 | +6–8 % |
| 304 welded | 17,500 | 17,800 | 18,100 | 18,400 | +4–6 % |
2027 Price Forecast (RMB per ton, average)
| Grade | Expected average 2027 | Year-on-year change |
| 304 seamless | 20,800–21,500 | +5–8 % |
| 316L seamless | 27,500–28,800 | +6–9 % |
| 304 welded | 19,000–19,600 | +4–7 % |
Biggest upside risk: nickel shortage or new green steel rules Biggest downside risk: slow construction recovery
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Quick Tips for Buyers
- Lock Q1 2026 contracts before Chinese New Year – save 3–5 %
- Stock 304 welded now – it will rise the least
- Budget 8–10 % extra for 316L if you sell to Europe (CBAM tax)
- Ask for fixed-price 6-month contracts to stay safe
Want real-time quotes and mill stock? Many buyers use hnyasco.com because they update prices every week and ship fast.
Looking for reliable factories? Check their updated list of the top stainless steel pipe suppliers in china.
Final Word
2026 will see a gentle 5–8 % increase and 2027 another 5–9 %. Nothing crazy, but enough to make early buying smart. Keep watching nickel prices and China output numbers – those two decide everything.
